Now we are getting close to FOMC Press Conference on September 2016 and i'm sure many traders have been making their trading positions already. First of all, we need to know the situation and condition for the market.
So, what do you expect for the next rate decision? Will FED raise it?
Ok so let me tell you my view to begin with. Oil is stuck around $45 level currently and CPI will not got a great push to the upside in near term. And the last data from GDP is 1.2% with 1.1% inflation.
1.2% - 1.1% = 0,1%
0.1% growth will not allow you to raise rate at all. If they did it, it will only to protect their credibility.
So it's a short and easy explanation for current condition. If i were to say other factors, the political factors such presidential elections, stock crash possibility, risk for worser Manufacturing PMI even in current bad condition and it might take too long! I know not all people understand what i am saying right now. Some might only want to know what they can do in current condition and how they can earn money with it. That is why i will get to the point.
There are 2 ways you can use to trade this:
1. Wait until the rate decision and trade according to the decision. If they raise rate then buy USD and if they fail to raise it then sell USD. If you're going to do this, make sure you check the cross pair first and don't randomly pick USD's pair. For example, it might be better to choose shorting GBP/USD if you're going to become USD bull and buying precious metal for USD short.
2. If you believe my short calculation above (since i don't have time to post the big view and explanation) then just try to buy XAU/USD (Gold) pair from now and even XAG/USD (Silver) pair from now.